How To Profit In Real Estate Investing With Fixer-Uppers

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There are many people who get into real estate investing and who, in the process, just follow a simple formula which is using the well tried and certainly most tested way of doing business in real estate and that is to buy homes being put up for sale by owners who are in distress. In such instances, they are able to snap up distress properties at rock bottom prices and then they simply fix up the properties with a view to selling them further at a higher price and in the process make a tidy sum of money. As a matter of fact, it has been found that those who have used such simple strategies over the long term have succeeded so much that they have made enough money to turn into millionaires.

Different Reasons Why Distress Homes Are Put Up For Sale

The problem of course that one has to contend with at the very outset is that of learning how to find fixer-uppers. In this regard it should be mentioned that when a homeowner becomes distressed it may cause them to cease to properly maintain their properties and often, they may even end up falling behind in making the payments on their properties. What’s more, both buyers and sellers are known to have a number of different reasons why they get into real estate investing in fixer-uppers though common reasons include losing a job or going through a divorce and even illnesses and alcohol abuse can cause a seller to become distressed.

Whatever the reason why a homeowner becomes distressed, there is no doubt that the real loser in the equation is the property which will suffer because it won’t be properly maintained and payments on it too will start to be skipped and thus it becomes an ideal candidate for being sold as part of a fixer-upper strategy. And, among the most lucrative real estate investing opportunities that you will come across when it concerns fixer uppers are homes that are completely rundown, owned by a seller who is in the process of divorcing their spouse and those who can’t keep up with their mortgage payments.

Still, homes that are very ugly and which need fixing are really quite difficult to sell off because buyers for such homes are rather limited and not easy to convince to buy such type of homes. Obviously, homeowners prefer to put their real estate investing money in homes that don’t need much repair work because having to repair a home or upgrade it is not something a prospective homeowner will want when purchasing a home.

To be sure, most homebuyers need a property that is a home and not something to invest their hard-earned money in. Furthermore, when you are looking for fixer-uppers with real estate investing in mind you will also have to have contractors available who can make a home inhabitable with just a little work. Once you are sure that you want a contractor to repair and upgrade your home, you can then prospect for homes that are available at bargain prices.

Typically, you should scout the advertisements that have terms such as as-is or fixer-upper or even handyman’s special or other similar terms that show you that the home requires some repair. Even a local real estate agent can point you in the right direction. If you stick in this line long enough, people will then come to understand that you are in the fixer-upper line of real estate investing and will then contact you with
suitable and tempting fixer-upper deals.

Having located a suitable property, you then need to be sure about what the problem with the home is and then think of ways to solve such problems. Often, the problem may have a lot to do with financial constrains rather than requiring to physically repair the home and if such is the case, you can then get an even lower sales price for the property in question. However, be aware that fixer-uppers in real estate investing is a line in which you must always tread with great care and caution because even a small mistake can lead to disastrous consequences.

The bottom line is that you must first of all put together a good team and to also do home buying in a very careful and conservative manner. In addition, you should also be prepared to pay whatever it takes to repair the home and once you understand and act properly on these parameters you will find that fixer upper in real estate investing can fetch you plenty of money.

Gear up your tax planning with mutual funds. Smart tax saving tips and recommendations – 2008

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Tax planning has changed radically over a period of time. Since its time for filling income tax returns for 2007-2008 as the end date (31st march’ 08) is approaching. As a tax payer you need to understand the best way through which you can make use of the exemptions provided by the government. Earlier people had limited choice of tax saving instruments to be used for the purpose of tax planning. But now with the ELSS (Equity Linked Saving Schemes) launched by most of the mutual fund companies, the whole approach towards tax saving has changed. With mutual funds tax planning had become more important part of over all investment planning. With equity linked saving schemes the tax exemptions can be used in a manner such that you not just disciple your investments but also create good corpus through equity investment.
Tax planning for resident Indians
We recommend tax saving funds, also referred to as Equity-Linked Saving Schemes (ELSS). One such reason is that their benefits are too much to ignore as they hold almost all the benefits of an equity mutual fund.
For one, they do not have any restrictions. If you choose to, you can invest the entire Rs 1 lakh available under Section 80C in these ELSS funds.
They give you the benefit of higher returns. You can get 8 per cent with your PPF and NSC. But if you can get a 40-50 per cent return, coupled with a tax benefit, what’s wrong with it?

How do you invest in an ELSS scheme? It is as simple as investing in any other mutual fund schemes. You just need to fill the form of particular ELSS scheme in which you want to invest. Submit it through any transaction point with the required document i.e. usually PAN card and KYC form. That’s it your work is done. You can know more through website. In this you can get the understanding of selecting any scheme and filling the form.
The benefit 3 Years lock in period for ELSS schemes.
Secondly, if you hate blocking your money for years on end, then this one surely made for you. The lock-in period for ELSS funds is just three years. When you sell after three years, you pay no capital gains tax. So, you get the tax benefit when investing and you pay no tax on your profits.
The best way to invest in a mutual fund is investing systematically through out the year using SIP. So you commit to putting away a fixed amount every month in mutual funds. This is an automatic savings habit that will hold you in the long run and help you not only to save but also invest regularly and continuously in the capital market through equity linked saving schemes (ELSS).
You need to be consistent in your investments to do well. The wonders which a disciplined investment can do cannot be replicated by even the best of investment strategies.
Want to know about the top mutual funds for Tax Saving?
Most of the Mutual fund companies have come out with tax saving funds. They are Equity Linked Saving Schemes (ELSS). The funds collected under this tax saving schemes are invested in equity instrument, thus providing better returns. Many of these ELSS funds generate as much returns as a diversified equity fund. With the awareness been increasing among the investor class, the equity linked saving schemes are gaining popularity
among the investor class. To know more you can visit Godmind and get the collection of recommended tax saving funds which is been provided by Godmind advisors. Also you can ask the Mutual fund Advisors on which ELSS (Equity linked saving scheme) fund to invest in.
Take step towards informed mutual fund investment by investing with care and due diligence.

Give Me Egg Yellows

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There once lived a man fixated on contrarianism. If a clear sky blessed his town, he pointed to the distant storm clouds over the horizon. When the hometown team played its rival, he cheered diligently for the opponent. And as the stock market posted tremendous gains, he preached of a bear market seduction.

“Don’t be lured by the recent gains, you will eventually face misfortune and lose everything!”

The entire town knew him as the inconsiderate contrarian and avoided him at all costs. It was his place in the community to doubt and his viewpoints proved unpopular to everyone. He disrupted their jubilant ways of life and distracted them from their daily routines. But, it was his explosive display of antagonism one particular morning that encouraged the town people to rethink their complacency.

On the morning in question, he paid a visit to the neighborhood health diner. The diner advertised itself as an alternative to fast food restaurants. As he sat patiently to place his breakfast order, he became disgruntled with the consistency of orders requesting “egg whites.” It seemed every patron ordered the same. Egg whites … egg whites … egg whites.

“Stop with the egg whites!” he told himself.

The contrarian, however, was an educated man and he knew the benefits of egg whites. The yolk contained a lot of unhealthy fat and cholesterol, but not egg whites. The high protein from egg whites provided the benefits of muscle building and weight loss. Remember though, he was the town contrarian and it was his obligation to propose a second opinion. As he contemplated the best way to introduce salmonella to the diner’s most popular topic of conversation, he had a revelation.

“Give me egg yellows!” he shouted rebelliously to the waitress. Every fork, spoon, coffee cup, and orange juice glass dropped. Silence breached the busy diner and the contrarian smiled with satisfaction. As the contrarian, he rejected the healthier egg white option.

With one statement of defiance, he disregarded all medical advice to limit egg yolks, he argued popular opinion, and he glorified the alternative. His personal entertainment relied solely on the responses of those he confronted and he laughed at the shocked expressions. Although the diner spoke about the ridiculous incident for years to come, some patrons began to deviate from the diet and ate the entire egg from time to time.

Most people find embracing the contrarian a difficult proposition because it goes against the tide of popular belief. Yet, there are times when one must consider alternatives.

Contrarianism has its benefits and disadvantages in the areas of investing and saving. It takes a delicate mixture of confidence, education, and control to make the theory successful. The contrarian investor often sells when the herd is fervently buying and buys when the herd is frantically selling. The contrarian recognizes the extremes of hysterical selling and overly optimistic buying. And to the contrarian, the genesis of a great investment opportunity occurs during intolerant and erratic market episodes.

Capitulation is an important concept for the contrarian to understand. It refers to sellers theoretically selling all positions as the market abandons its belief of an upward bias. In an effort to reduce further losses, investors sell positions at unreasonable prices and the market reaches oversold extremes. Some signs of a market capitulation include above average volume, negative mornings resulting
in positive closures, and dramatic increases in mutual fund cash positions. For the market contrarian, exorbitant pessimism is an ally.

Arguably, the most popular capitulation event occurred in October of 1987, also known as Black Monday. In one day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 23% of its market price and devastated investment accounts worldwide. What a nice way to begin the work week. And although the United States avoided a recession and depression, the plunge resulted in widespread emotional commentaries. Potential reasons for the crash included programmed computer selling, unreasonably bullish investor sentiment, high stock valuations, and the weakened U.S. dollar.

Just as the town contrarian disrupted the diner, in October of 1987 the stock market temporarily swayed investor confidence. Yet, the next day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose almost 6% from its prior day close. By the end of 1987, the index posted an increase of about 11.5% from its October 19th lows, and on the one year anniversary, a gain of approximately 23% from the lows. Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average price is nearly six times Black Monday’s closing amount.

To be a contrarian investor does not mean acting foolishly and blindly. It is important to realize every person has unique investment policies. A thorough review of your risk tolerances, time horizons, and financial goals must be factored into your overall plan. Consult your financial advisor for appropriate direction.

Contrarian investing takes into consideration crisis driven market moves. A contrarian watches for overabundant emotions of greed and fear. Yet, acting on the irrational theories of others is not enough. Review current market conditions and the reasons behind such moves. Fundamental analysis of your positions is another key component to a well diversified portfolio. A contrarian must understand the market place in full.

The market has a curious way of introducing doubt into the minds of its investors when many seem content with the current direction. It is important to stay alert of changes and consider alternatives. Setting realistic goals, adapting to changes, and remaining focused will also aid you in developing an appropriate strategy.

And when the market menu reads just one meal, remember you may have other choices to fill your investment plate. Choices that may assist you in understanding market volatility and thus create a healthier outlook for the future. Contrarianism is not a rule to enforce at all times, however it is an approach that deserves some skeptical attention.

As an investor, you should be aware of all your options and make logical choices. Then, one day you may order “egg yellows for my portfolio, please.”

Investing in a Long-Term Strategy means Long-Term Fortune

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Investors Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett have made unbelievable fortunes through long-term, value investing.

Making money in the stock market can be dependent on your willingness to invest in long-term investments or buying only undervalued stocks. With a margin of safety on these stocks you will have a little peace of mind and if you are like Warren Buffett, you too may well be able to enjoy an average 22% annual gain. Even more enticing if you know that that’s his record over the last 39 years!

Tremendous results like this are not easily duplicated in the short term or without great experience. With some work and time being on your side it is possible to be the next Warren, but even more possible and likely is for you to become a major player on the investment scene.

No seriously, you can.

The S&P 500’s average long term result is a return of about 11%. Now if you aimed to beat that consistently, that would mean that you are doing very well indeed, almost well enough to live a very comfortable, relaxed existence.

For example – you have $3,000 a year that you can invest purely for your future retirement.

Why are you screaming at $3,000 a year? That’s only $250.00 a month! Come on – you want to retire, don’t you?

Well, invest that in a tax-efficient retirement account that compounds interest, hitting the average 11% at least. Now have a look at your account in twenty years time and you’ll find that you have an extra $178,000, thanks to compound interest – a total of $238,000.

The key to the game is not so much the size of the financial investment that you are making as it is the way that you use it.

Starting young and using the power of compound interest can make you a retirement millionaire in less time than you could ever have imagined. Some investors will lovingly call using compound interest simply using the “force” while others simply call you an idiot for not using it. If you are one of the one’s with the foresight to start investing now, you will be one of the one’s with the ability to brag about the general comfort of your retirement.

Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham aren’t geniuses or once-in-a-lifetime lucky dogs; they are a few guys who used their money to make money. By putting in everything later in life you may make a solid return, by putting in a solid amount early in life, you may make everything.

Investing In China: Sample Local Investment Incentiives (Henan Province And Zhengzhou Municipality)

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Additional incentives offered by local and provincial governments significantly increase the foreign investor’s incentive package. They tend to become more generous as one moves westward from the coastal provinces to the heavily populated interior, this allowing the foreign investor to cash in on China’s fierce domestic competition for foreign investment. There are national regulations, however, that are applicable to the tax incentives that a local government is entitled to offer Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIEs), and if these limits are exceeded by overenthusiastic local governments they can be revoked by the national government (hopefully any such revocation would not apply retroactively to FIEs).

Central China’s Henan province serves as a good example. Henan offers manufacturing-oriented FIEs complete waivers of business tax and a many local administrative fees. Furthermore, FIEs that are engaged in technology transfer, development, and related consulting are eligible for a full refund of business tax already paid.

Regional Tax Incentives Offered By Henan Province

Production-Oriented Foreign Invested EnterprisesWaiver of Local Income Tax and fees for city construction, urban expansion, water resources protection, landscaping, and wall reconstruction. Transaction handling charges for purchasing production / operation sites are also waived.
Enterprises and R&D centers dealing with technology transfer, development and services Certain income can be exempted from corporate income tax after approval.

Municipal governments tend to be even more generous than the provinces. Zhengzhou (a city of about 4 million in central China) is a good example. Zhengzhou offers the following incentives to local FIEs:

Tax Incentives for Reinvestment of Profits Locally – Local FIEs that reinvest their profits locally receive a 30% refund of the locally retained portion of Enterprise Income Tax paid on the reinvested profits (the national government offers an even more generous refund of the nationally retained portion).

Investment in “Pillar” Industries and State-owned Enterprises – Zhengzhou grants a 50% refund for three years on the locally retained portion of Enterprise Income Tax already paid on foreign investment funds invested in designated “pillar industries”. It also offers financial incentives for investing in provincially administrated state-owned enterprises. In order to discourage mass layoffs, this incentive is increased if the FIEs retains a given percentage of the enterprise’s original employees.

Inward Remittance of Export Earnings – Zhengzhou offers cash payouts of 0.2% to 0.5% of every dollar of hard currency export earnings that is remitted inward (the best payouts are reserved for the export of technologically advanced products).

Matching Funds – Zhengzhou provides one-to-one matching funds for international market development funds of small to medium-sized exporting enterprises if they are supervised at the provincial level (whether an enterprise is supervised at the provincial level or the national level depends the size of its investment – its Registered Capital; see examination and approval authority for details).

Anti-Dumping
Insurance – Zhengzhou will assist FIEs in responding to antidumping initiatives. It also offers subsidies for expenses arising out of participation by exporters in antidumping responses to the extent that these initiatives are not already being subsidized by provincial or national authorities. It may seem a bit odd for a U.S. company to establish an enterprise in China, get involved in a lawsuit filed by the United States for dumping its products, and be subsidized by the Chinese government for expenses necessary to defend the lawsuit, but it’s possible.

Interest Subsidy for Loans Secured by Tax Refund Accounts- Zhengzhou will subsidize a sum equal to 70% of the interest payable on loans that are secured by a tax refund account. If the FIE has not taken out such a loan, Zhengzhou offers a subsidy equal to 50% of the interest that would have been paid on such a loan had it been taken out – it will even provide the fund from which the interest is subsidized. Enterprises that have an annual export volume of at least US$5,000,000 in the previous year and are verified by the National Tax Bureau to have an increased tax refund due for the current year will receive a 100% subsidy.

Export Incentives – An export enterprise with either (ii) an annual export volume of at least US$10,000,000 and actual export volume of at least 25% more than the previous year, or (ii) annual export volume of at least US$5,000,000, an increase in export volume of more than 40% over the previous year, and inward remittances from exports at least 80% of sales volume, will be named a “Zhengzhou Advanced Foreign Exchange Generating Export Enterprise” and awarded a 30,000 RMB prize (roughly $3,500 US dollars) as long as it has not committed serious regulatory violations during the year preceding the award.

Basic Tax Rate – The nationally-mandated basic Enterprise Income Tax rate for foreign invested enterprises is 33%, including a 3% surcharge that is retained by local governments. However, because Zhengzhou has been classified by the national government as a “city open to foreign investment and trade”, the Enterprise Income Tax rate of production-oriented FIEs located within the city is reduced to 24%. Furthermore, since the Zhengzhou Economic & Technical Development Zone (an industrial park located within urban Zhengzhou) has been designated as a National Economic & Technical Development Zone, the Enterprise Income Tax rate for production-oriented FIEs located therein has been further reduced to only 15%.

Achieving Success In Oil & Natural Gas Investing

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Investments in oil & gas private placements, or direct participation projects should only be made by investors who understand, or learn how to implement a deliberate plan to minimize risk, while clearly understanding a likely, and reasonable risk/reward ratio…investors need to accept the over-all risk they must take to achieve the upside necessary to justify taking the risk in the first place.

Investing in oil & gas projects usually takes a check-list approach in my view. Investors should realize that almost all oil & gas development operations involve technical challenges. Deals take time to develop and come to fruition, actually, often up to two years before significant pay-back of capital is possible.

Oil & Gas investing is not for investors who don’t need the tax advantages, or who simply think they are going to get steady, and fixed rates of return each month immediately after they first start investing. The only exception that I know of is when you find an oil and gas investment which is nearly fully funded already, and is one which is beginning to achieve some level of success when you find it.

Spreading-out your capital in multiple well drilling programs with people who control, or operate their own deals makes more sense to me than trusting a promotional company who wants to test a new drilling location with your money.

Investing in the Stock market where you get liquidity with public stocks on the larger exchanges, and your principal is typically safer is a better place to start when considering oil & gas investing.

Managed Funds — Growing Your Wealth without the Headaches

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Managed funds are an easy way to invest wisely and with low risk. Investment in a fixed term deposit – especially with a fund that invests in real estate – is an easy way to grow to your wealth.

Apart from being a great way to have your money managed by investment professionals, managed funds also simplify the process of building and maintaining an investment portfolio. Instead of tracking a wide range of individual investments, your fund will keep track for you, and the progress of your investment is expressed in one simple unit price.

A Bit Here and a Bit There

With any investment strategy diversification is important to minimise risk. The resources available to financial institutions are usually greater than those of the individual investor, therefore diversification is much easier as part of a managed fund than it would be if you had to raise the capital for a truly diverse – and therefore more secure – investment yourself.

As an example, if you have $100,000 to invest and you choose to buy real estate, your $100,000 might buy you a small unit that you could rent out. Then your entire financial future hangs on the performance of this one investment. If houses in that area depreciate due to changes in the locale, or you have trouble finding or keeping tenants, or you find out three weeks too late that there are serious structural problems, your financial future is in jeopardy.

By comparison, a managed fund that invests in mortgages has the capital to speculate on a wide range of properties in diverse suburbs, with differing land values, various land uses (residential, commercial etc), and a much lower dependence on the performance of any single investment property. Your future no longer hinges on one little unit because it’s merely a part of a much larger portfolio than you could invest in on your own.

Choosing a Managed Fund

When you’re choosing a managed fund it’s always tempting to just go with the one that offers the best term deposit rate. However, experience dictates that it’s wiser to conduct some deeper research before committing yourself to a fund. Here are some issues to consider:

The decision-makers: What qualifications do the Directors of the fund have? How closely are they involved in the day-to-day running and major investment decisions of the fund? Any managed fund that you invest in should be run by industry professionals – accountants, brokers, people with backgrounds in banking and finance; if you’re investing in a managed fund that invests heavily in property, the decision-making team should include someone with extensive experience in the real estate market.

Mortgage funds – choosing properties and quality mortgages: Mortgages are very popular investments for managed funds. As mentioned above, any fund that invests in property should have ready access to advice from a real estate market professional.

Consider factors such as the diversification of the properties invested in (geographical diversification – are the properties spread throughout a wide range of suburbs and price brackets? And sector diversification – what property types are invested in, spread across residential, commercial, industrial etc); and what percentage of the value of the property the fund will lend (often 70% of the value for first mortgages, and up to 85% of the value of the property for second mortgages).

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A good way to gauge the viability of a managed mortgage fund is to look at the number of loan write-offs; the number of bad debts incurred (mortgages that the fund has granted that have been defaulted on); and the amount of loans in arrears of principal and interest for over 30 days.

Also, every property that is invested in should be valued by a qualified valuer – not a real estate ‘market appraisal’ – and, if possible (especially for smaller funds), every proposed property should be inspected by a qualified employee from your fund to double check that everything is as it should be – good quality control can prevent mishaps.

Income options: Naturally, it’s your choice how long you wish to invest your money for. When choosing a fund look at factors such as early withdrawal penalties and payment options. Can you have access to the interest earned monthly? Quarterly? Annually? Or will you have to wait until the end of your fixed term period before earning any income from your investment? Choose whichever option suits you best. A high rate of return is useless if you envisage needing an income from your investment before the end of the proposed fixed term.

Environment: Economic trends and possible political changes are some other factors to keep a weather eye out for. If you invest heavily in a fund that in turn invests internationally, you’ll want to know where your money is going and whether the governments and economies in question are stable and likely to stay that way. Some financial advisors suggest that investing 15-20% of your capital overseas is a wise move, and it is – as long as the country/countries in question have a good economic climate and aren’t in the throws of political upheavals.

So, now you have a few tips for finding yourself a managed fund that will help to grow your wealth. Once you’ve chosen a fund, or have decided on the sorts of investments that you’d like to be involved with and you’re looking for a fund, there are still some more things to consider before diving in.

This is the first instalment of a four-part series of articles to help you cut through some of the financial jargon without getting too much of a headache. The next three instalments will look at investment rates, retirement funds and self-managed superannuation. Hopefully they’ll help put you on the right track to grow your wealth.

A final note: This article – and the series of articles to come – is not given as professional financial advice. Your personal circumstances have not been taken into account and financial situations vary the world over. You should seek professional financial advice and read the product disclosure statement for any financial product before making a decision.

Find the Pattern with Better Trades

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I am chartist and a technical trader. I believe that the first line of analysis is to find patterns. Line drawing and straight line analysis is the standard. It has been and continues to be the base line tool. Moving averages and range bands are more recent developments and are observatory. Straight line charting has modeled and been used to define patterns and set targets for an awfully long time, and I believe that you can’t throw a pile of lumber of a cliff and have it land in the shape of a house. If it looks like a house, some one has manipulating the lumber.

I want to show you a study that is remarkable in that it shows obvious pattern trading but not in a single stock rather an entire index, in this case the NASDAQ. The slides here are chronologically sequential and can not be put together after the fact to make a point. They were annotated and posted as they happened and were charted in my Trader’s Talk Live training sessions. I have a group of students who subscribe to spend several hours per week charting and being trained to read and trade off chart patterns. What you will see is the break of a trend and the steps it takes to morph into a new trend.

Note that the lines were drawn before the pattern fully developed, demonstrating that the pattern was recognized and laid out before the price played into the lines. Now the pattern could have broken at any time. The lines did not dictate what the stock / Index could or could not do. Rather the lines showed the pattern and the targets that would be reached if the pattern continued. Each pivot point that was reached gave an opportunity to trade off the price reaction to a critical decision point.

Feb 23rd the index dropped to recent support rally with the up trend line just below. A lower top also was formed. We identified the support and noted that the long term line was just below.

Now, notice that the next day held support but reached down intraday to bounce off the trend line. As it moves up it stalls in line with lower tops forming a wedge pattern. Now it is a powerful pivot point as descending tops collide with a long term support trend line. A move to the upside is a break out the target will be 2155. A break in the support line gives weight to the developing down trend.

The next day drops right to the support line the break down signals the end of an uptrend that began in March 2003 and changed angles in November 2003. It moves on down to the bottom of the trading range of the new trend. This set up is another Obvious Bracket Trade. The Resistance line is defining the current trend and the Support and resistance lines show that there is attention being paid to the target points. The pile of lumber is taking the shape of a nice house.

As a double bounce / bottom pounds the support line, the upside target is the top of the range at about 2020. The downside targets would be sliding down the support line or dropping to the next hard price support of 1900, the last major rally point.

Two days later, the big gap and drop to 1900 signals the recognition of the support area. Returning to previous rally points is a common pattern. From here, the market sentiment can be accurately tested. The
public is not the critical catalyst here. The big traders here will be testing to see if the public is finished selling off. If there is equilibrium, the public / market may be ready to follow a lead to the upside.

Try as you like, you will not find news to explain what happens the next three days. To quote an analyst on CNBC who speculated at length about what prompted the big move last Thursday," I guess we don’t really know".

Well, I will tell you this. The folks who lit that fire were careful to choose that day to test fire the rocket. All of the markets had reached support levels from a trend line / straight line analysis point of view (see the commentaries for the last three weeks).

In our Trader Talk Live sessions we chronicled this as it happened and had opportunities to trade the many stocks that were doing the exact same dance steps.

This morning we are right at the next target. We moved there in the first hour and stopped. It has been an hour so far and it is still there. Gee, do you think that maybe the traders already knew that 1995-2000 was the limit of the current pattern and that many traders would be very ready and willing to take profits here at an obvious pivot point? Now will they? I don’t know… I am not on the floor. But I don’t have to be there to see the targets. When they get there, there will be a struggle to test the waters. If the buying frenzy will not give way to some shorting or profit taking there could be a test above the mark to see who wants to play. Either way… the pattern speaks volumes to the premise that in the midst of what may seem like randomness there appears to be a guiding hand. Look folks, there is too much money on the line not to have serious efforts to create some predictability.

Most all indicators and averages etc. are following and at best interesting after the fact. Some are predictive and highly accurate in reflecting behavior but Pattern Analysis of the price action and the targeting the next likely TEST of the market sentiment is the closest and most accurate way to get close to the game. You are likely not the Key trader in a stock or an index fund. Most likely you are not one of the Professional institutional traders that follow the Key Traders or the Fund managers that pick up on the momentum building on the floor. The masses take their Queue long after the test and subsequent direction has begun and your participation in the end will be necessary to move the stock or market on toward the testing point.

While I do use a very few indicators (MACD, WRSI, Stochs) they are consultants and are never reason I trade. The actual movement across a trigger price, whether it agrees with the indicators or not, dictates the trade. Now the indicators I use are highly accurate but guess what folks… they are never as accurate as the price. I routinely train my students to trade with out any indicators and they are surprised that they consistently make money by only trading price action and patterns. However there is one tool I insist on trading with and that is Candle Sticks. They is not an indicator, they are my hidden camera in the competition’s board room. But that discussion is for another day.

The pattern tells me when we reach a pivot point (significant price); the indicators give their best intelligence on the disposition of the trader’s momentum and attitude. That lets me set up legitimate criteria to make a trade. If /Then for the upside and If/Then for the down side. Armed with all that, I sit back and let the Stock / Index do what it will do. The key traders engage the masses and the spark either lights a fire or it doesn’t. I can’t know for sure what they will do and while I could say "my indicators suggest …so I am going in", is would be a glorified guess that screams "I don’t know how to wait for the stock to tell me it’s time. I will trust the indicator that
seems to be right a lot of the time and cross my fingers". I’ll tell a secret, the Key Traders, and the Pros that will follow them, are not looking at range bands, moving averages and overbought /over sold indicators. Their actions are making those indicators say what it says. They are doing a delicate dance with the real momentum of the market, the masses. They do not want to go against the public sentiment. They want to test / read that sentiment and drive the leading edge of the next cycle of the pattern.

I love this stuff! I have many maxims that I use to help keep perspective. "The stock will never listen to you, but it will speak if you learn to listen", "Find the pattern and play it till it breaks", " If there is no pattern, there is no trade".

Not all stocks and or indexes have easy patterns to follow but where there is big profit potential, there will be a pattern. Just because you can’t see it, does not mean it is not there.

The NASDAQ price action over the last year is a very beautiful house and that pile of wood did not land that way by random action. While some Technical indicators are often accurate at predicting price action, the market is right ALL the TIME! Find the Pattern and play it till it breaks.

PS. It takes a while for me to write an article like this. I came back to finish the editing and it is now 4 hours into the market. You gotta’ see this…

So, where does it go from here? I don’t know but it is obvious to me that the key traders know exactly where they are. They also have targets and all I have to do is find the up and down targets and when they take off I will follow. Remember, you don’t have to guess, "Find the pattern… it will speak to you".

Ryan Litchfield with Better Trades

Investment Basics: Don’t forget about bonds

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You should consider investing in bonds for both income and stability. In any given year equity markets could appreciate in value by 30 to 40 percent or decline in value by the same amount. Bonds fluctuate far less. Bonds also pay interest on a regular basis and thus investors will receive a cheque each month or quarter.

As with any investment, it is easy to get lost in the minutiae and with bonds the details come from some of the arithmetical calculations that determine the yields, returns, and risk of a bond. Here are the basics. Bonds offer a fixed amount of interest (the coupon rate), until a fixed period of time (the maturity date) at which point the denomination, also called the face value, is repaid and the interest payments stop. Bonds are issued by the federal, provincial, and municipal governments, and by a wide variety of corporations.

In general, corporations have to offer higher coupon rates to sell their bonds. Maturity dates range from 1 year to more than 30 years, with higher coupon rates being associated with longer periods to maturity, to compensate for increased risk. Long-term bonds tend to rise and fall in price more dramatically than do short term bonds; these bonds are more susceptible to movements in interest rates. In addition, bonds that provide higher coupon payments will fluctuate less than bonds that pay lower coupon payments. Staggering the maturity dates of bonds, which mixes bonds with short, medium, and longer periods to maturity, as well as mixing the institutions issuing those bonds (to include governments and some corporate bonds) will allow you to build a diversified bond portfolio).

Bond trading is done between dealers, which means that you won’t be able to view a complete auction market and its available quotes via the internet or even the newspaper. These same dealers will be able to supply accurate calculations of bond yields and the current price. Investors who invest in bonds directly as opposed to investing in bonds through a mutual fund will save on fee; saving 1/2 of one percent can make a big difference to your net worth. Investors who want diversification and active management could consider a bond mutual fund.